Version 2.184

I am starting to write this at 10:40 PM, CST. Joe Biden has 209 presumptive Electoral College votes vs. Trump's 109. A candidate needs 270 to win. At this time, Biden has 56.5 million votes, while Trump has 55.2 million, but the numbers keep increasing by the minute. The first votes to be counted will be the votes that were done in-person and the last votes to be counted will be the early votes that were done by mail. The early votes favor democrats, while votes on election day favor Republicans.  Turn out today was not as strong as expected: I saw an estimate today that, at most, total votes were 155 million, still very high. Of course, there will be contested votes.

It seems to me that if election-day votes favor Trump, his advantage should be highest tonight and then it should erode as mail-in votes get counted. But then there is the mix of votes and that is what determines the Electoral College. Texas is worth 38 Electoral College votes and it was the second state that had the highest rate of early votes vs. the 2016 election.

Considering how much defiance there is to count the votes in TX, it is possible that it will take several days to come up with a final tally. We shall see...