sexta-feira, 26 de maio de 2017

Outro pessimista

Mick Mulvaney, o Director do Office of Management and Budget apresentou esta semana a proposta de orçamento do Presidente Trump. A reacção mais crítica veio de Mark Sanford, Representante da Carolina do Sul e Republicano. Tive oportunidade de ouvir parte do que ele disse quando estava a ouvir as notícias na rádio e concordo com a sua apreciação dos dados.

O Huffington Post relata a intervenção de Sanford:
"Sanford offered some basic history to challenge Mulvaney’s assumptions. For starters, he noted that the average economic expansion in all U.S. history lasts about 58 months. The current expansion begun under President Barack Obama has been underway for 94 months. The Trump budget, Sanford noted, assumes that will continue uninterrupted for an additional 214 months.

“This budget presumes a Goldilocks economy, and I think that’s a very difficult thing on which to base a budget,” Sanford said. He also noted that the Bible cautions against building a house on sand.

Sanford took specific aim at the unemployment, growth and inflation rates the budget relies on.

“Can you guess the last time we had an unemployment rate of 4.8 percent, growth at 3 percent, and inflation held at 2 percent?” Sanford asked. “It’s never happened,” he answered, when Mulvaney didn’t.

After pointing to other assumptions in the budget that have never happened, Sanford argued that to get the growth rates assumed by the budget, it would take a return to economic and demographic circumstances that haven’t existed since the 1950s and 1960s. That was when women were entering the workforce, highways were being expanded, appliances were first flooding the markets, productivity was skyrocketing, and the Baby Boomers were going to work, rather than retiring en masse.

“Even if we went to 1990 numbers, we would only see one-quarter of what is necessary to achieve 3 percent growth,” Sanford said.

Fonte: Huffington Post

A reacção de Mulvaney foi descrita na CNBC:
"Mulvaney defended the White House's projection earlier in the hearing, saying he was "stunned" about widespread doubts that the U.S. can achieve — and maintain — 3 percent growth. He argued that people would have to be "pessimistic" to assume such a level of expansion is "somehow unreasonable.""

Fonte: CNBC

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