A minha opinião pessoal é que durante a Presidência Trump irá seguir-se uma política de relaxe do enquadramento legal do sector financeiro, o que irá semear a próxima crise financeira. A profundidade dessa crise será agravada pelo aumento do nível de dívida pública americana que acontecerá devido aos cortes de impostos de Trump. Os resultados das próximas eleições mid-term e presidenciais poderão atenuar o risco, se o Congresso se virar mais para o lado Democrata e o próximo Presidente for Democrata, mas acho isso muito improvável.
"Although the effect tends to fade after the fifth year, there's ample reason to believe that the crisis-related recession of 2007-2009 had an impact persistent enough to help Trump's antiestablishment campaign. For one, the crisis was unusually deep and prolonged. Also, the schedule of presidential elections meant that much of the dissatisfaction couldn’t be expressed until this year.
So why do financial recessions have such uniquely powerful consequences? One explanation is that they discredit elites: People might perceive a normal economic slump as an inevitable event, while a financial crisis -- with its accompanying bailouts -- undermines faith in the whole system and the policy makers who manage it. As Schularick put it in an interview: "It's not just a financial collapse; it's also a form of intellectual bankruptcy."
What’s ironic is that U.S. voters have responded by installing a president who wants to dismantle the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which was intended to prevent further financial disasters. If Trump replaces the legislation (or parts of it) with something more effective, such as a regime focused on sharply higher capital requirements for banks, that might not be so bad. If not, the next cycle of crisis, disillusionment and revolt might not be far away."
Fonte: Mark Whitehouse, Bloomberg