sexta-feira, 17 de abril de 2015

Depressa, para o BenMobile...

Quem precisa de um Batman, quando um Ben Bernake é tão prestável em combater os maus da fita? Há duas semanas, Ben Bernanke decidiu dar porrada na Alemanha: diz que a Alemanha é "subsidiada" pelo euro e, por isso, rouba crescimento a outras economias, pois se a Alemanha tivesse moeda própria, não conseguiria exportar tanto, o que produziria oportunidades de exportação para outros países. E, não contente com uma moeda fraca, a Alemanha também insiste em seguir políticas internas que suprimem a sua procura interna. Diz o nosso Gentle Ben:
First, although the euro—the currency that Germany shares with 18 other countries—may (or may not) be at the right level for all 19 euro-zone countries as a group, it is too weak (given German wages and production costs) to be consistent with balanced German trade. In July 2014, the IMF estimated that Germany’s inflation-adjusted exchange rate was undervalued by 5-15 percent (see IMF, p. 20). Since then, the euro has fallen by an additional 20 percent relative to the dollar. The comparatively weak euro is an underappreciated benefit to Germany of its participation in the currency union. If Germany were still using the deutschemark, presumably the DM would be much stronger than the euro is today, reducing the cost advantage of German exports substantially.

Second, the German trade surplus is further increased by policies (tight fiscal policies, for example) that suppress the country’s domestic spending, including spending on imports.

In a slow-growing world that is short aggregate demand, Germany’s trade surplus is a problem. Several other members of the euro zone are in deep recession, with high unemployment and with no “fiscal space” (meaning that their fiscal situations don’t allow them to raise spending or cut taxes as a way of stimulating domestic demand). Despite signs of recovery in the United States, growth is also generally slow outside the euro zone. The fact that Germany is selling so much more than it is buying redirects demand from its neighbors (as well as from other countries around the world), reducing output and employment outside Germany at a time at which monetary policy in many countries is reaching its limits.

E, a meu ver, ainda há outra coisinha: se um dia os investidores se virarem contra a Alemanha e lhe retirarem o privilégio de financiamento a taxas ridículamente baixas, vai haver fogo de artifício...

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