quinta-feira, 24 de setembro de 2020

Version 2.143

Well, if we can be sure of something is that Americans are preparing for the worst come election day. I keep getting messages on my cell phone asking me if I will vote Democrat in TX or if I'd like to donate to the party. Nobody cares about my vote in TN. I will not be donating any money this year, as I do not believe Joe Biden is a worthy candidate, but not voting or voting blank would clearly favor Trump. Thus I am under the same reasoning that made Álvaro Cunhal cover the candidate's face in the ballot while voting for Mário Soares.

I had a disagreement this week with a friend -- well, it's an ex-friend now, but that was not my decision --, whom I accused of not knowing mathematics. The issue at hand was Chega and André Ventura. My personal opinion is that people give André Ventura too much credit and he rejoices in being the center of attention. As they say in show business bad publicity is good publicity.

But, as I said, my point is pure mathematics: the importance of Chega is amplified by the size of the abstention and also by blank votes, thus it makes no sense for people who abhor André Ventura to not vote in another party, as that would dilute Chega's results. If you want a ratio to come down, you have three options: reduce the numerator, increase the denominator or both. Reducing the numerator is out of your hands, since there will always be people who will vote for him, thus you are left with increasing the denominator, i.e. voting for someone else.

That people choose to stay home and not make their voices heard when they supposedly view the country in eminent danger because of Ventura says a lot about how much faith they have in elections. Or maybe people are not that concerned about the threat of Chega. Or even still they actually want Chega to succeed, but don't have the stomach to vote for the party. Portuguese history teaches us that change is effected by a very small minority, so it is only a matter of time until that minority appears. (My phone keeps chiming tonight on account of riots in Kentucky over the Grand Jury decision to not prosecute anyone on the death of Breonna Taylor. Two police officers were shot. Now we know what that Second Amendment is for.)

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