quarta-feira, 2 de março de 2016

Leitura obrigatória

Há três peças que, neste momento, deveriam ser de leitura obrigatória para qualquer pessoa que se interessa por economia. Nelas estão as pistas para o que irá acontecer até 2020. São estas:

Abramowicz, Lisa. "Scaling a $9.5 Trillion Debt Wall", Bloomberg, 28/2/2016.

Companies still have a little time before they must pay down the bulk of $9.5 trillion of debt maturing in the next five years. That’s the good news.DEBT MATURING IN NEXT FIVE YEARS$9.5 TrillionBut it’s not getting any easier for these corporations to borrow, at least not in the U.S. In fact, many of these obligations are becoming harder and more expensive to repay at a time when companies face a historic pile of bonds and loans coming due.This wave of debt coming due through 2020 is bigger than previous five-year schedules of debt maturities in 2013, 2014 and 2015, according to Standard & Poor’s data. It includes about $2.3 trillion of junk-rated debt, with about $418 billion of that rated B- or lower. And it peaks in 2020, with $2.1 trillion of debt coming due, which is greater than the peaks of the most recent previous maturity walls.

The Economist. "The biggest loophole of all", 20/2/2016.

No one knows how much undeclared money is stashed offshore. Estimates range from a couple of trillion dollars to $30 trillion. What is clear is that America’s share is growing. Already the largest location for managing foreign wealth, it has picked up business as regulators have increased information-exchange and scrutiny of banks and trust companies in Europe and the Caribbean. Money is said to be flowing in from the Bahamas and Bermuda, as well as from Switzerland.

Micklethwait, John. "Jamie Dimon on Finance: ‘Who Owns the Future?’", Bloomberg Markets, 1/3/2016.

Jamie Dimon: We make money, too, so I’m not that upset. I expect them to do that; that’s what they do. Banks don’t want certain asset classes, and that’s created opportunities for private equity, hedge funds, Silicon Valley. In this case I think he [Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman] was referring to some of the European banks shedding assets, and the big buyers are probably not going to be big American banks. Someone like Blackstone may have a very good chance to buy those assets, leverage them, borrow up a little bit, and do something good there.

3 comentários:

  1. Pois... Eu sempre soube que vem dos EUA o bloqueio à alteração dos regimes fiscais privilegiados. O que eu ainda não sabia é o que está na sinopse do segundo artigo, que lerei mais tarde.

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  2. As dívidas não se são para pagar, são para se gerir, faz-se o rollover.

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    Respostas
    1. O Alberto Silva tem uma falha muito grande na sua lógica: se a dívida crescer a taxas mais altas do que o rendimento, o rollover da dívida será insustentável porque a porção do rendimento necessária para fazer a manutenção dos juros terá de aumentar. O problema aqui é que estas empresas terão de reduzir despesas noutro lado para fazer face aos encargos de gestão da dívida e, se não houver muitos compradores para a dívida, terão de pagar taxas de juro mais altas para os atrair.

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